mathsurgery - probability

Introduction to probability

useful introduction to probability in Polish

All
• Describe the occurrence of familiar events using the language of chance or likelihood (Y5)
• Describe and predict outcomes from data using the language of chance or likelihood (Y6)

Most
• Draw simple conclusions and explain reasoning• Use vocabulary and ideas of probability, drawing on experience
• Understand and use the probability scale from 0 to 1; find and justify probabilities based on equally likely outcomes in simple contexts; identify all the possible mutually exclusive outcomes of a single event
• Estimate probabilities by collecting data from a simple experiment and recording it in a frequency table; compare experimental and theoretical probabilities in simple contexts

Some
• Move between the general and the particular to test the logic of an argument
• Interpret the results of an experiment using the language of probability; appreciate that random processes are unpredictable• Know that if the probability of an event occurring is p, then the probability of it not occurring is 1-p; use diagrams and tables to record in a systematic way all possible mutually exclusive outcomes for single events and for two successive events
• Compare estimated experimental probabilities with theoretical probabilities, recognising that:
(i) if an experiment is repeated the outcome may, and usually will, be different
(ii) increasing the number of times an experiment is repeated generally leads to better estimates of probability

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probability